Arsenal Explosion Imminent

Note: Stats courtesy of AllThingsFPL. A brilliant site with insightful articles that also provides you with access to Opta statistics for FREE! 

Link: http://allthingsfpl.com/

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So, I was considering Alexis Sanchez as a transfer option this week and decided to do some digging on Arsenal’s statistics…

So far this season Arsenal have scored just 2 goals, the lowest number of goals scored in the league - not very impressive.

Although, in terms of statistics, Arsenal are the most attacking team in the league. Topping the league for Goal Attempts(61), Shots Inside the Box(43), Key Passes or Chances Created(49), 3rd highest number of Big Chances(5) and are 4th for Shots on Target(18). They are also top for possession in the league(61%).

Considering these impressive statistics, it’s quite surprising that they have only scored 2 goals so far, the joint lowest in the league. So, considering their free flowing football along with their goal scoring exploits last season(3rd highest scoring team), I think it’s fair to say that we can expect their number of goals scored to increase significantly over the coming weeks.  

With new, STK, lei, and wat in their next 6, a nice run of fixtures could be just what Arsenal need to convert their league-topping statistics into actual output in the form of goals scored. My suggestion from the Gunners would be Alexis Sanchez, who has been very unlucky not to have scored so far this season – hitting the post on multiple occasions over the last 3 weeks. I think it won’t be long before he comes up with a huge score in FPL, and should rack up the points over the next 6 weeks - definitely a top transfer target, in my opinion, and one to classify under "Explosion Imminent".

A Chelsea Resurgence???

Note: Stats courtesy of AllThingsFPL. A brilliant site with insightful articles that also provides you with access to Opta statistics for FREE! 

Link: http://allthingsfpl.com/

Early Season Chelsea Blues? Not for long...

After a disappointing start to the season with 1 draw and 1 loss in the first two weeks, conceding 5 goals and scoring 2 in the process, lots of Chelsea assets were ditched. I myself ridding myself of Courtois leaving me with 0 Chelsea.

Although, being the defending EPL champions this was never bound to be a long term problem, and I believe we are starting to see a resurgence.

These are big conclusions from a very small sample size of data, but nevertheless, conclusions can still be drawn even though they may be premature or inaccurate.

Anyway, here are some numbers for Chelsea comparing their first two weeks, to their first.

Using an average of the first two weeks:

ATTACK

Goal Attempts
GW 1+2: 10.5
GW 3: 15
43% improvement

Shots On Target
GW 1+2: 3
GW 3: 5
66% improvement

Big Chances
GW 1+2 : 0
GW 3: 2
~% improvement

Key Passes or Created Chances
GW 1+2: 7.5
GW 3: 13
73% improvement

Like I said, I’m only using 1 week to compare with the first 2, and in total it’s only been 3 GWs worth of data so far, so it’s not much. My judgements based on these may not necessarily be accurate, but what I personally take from them is that Chelsea are starting to pick up form. They’re beginning to work in attack, and actually their horrible defensive numbers of GW 1 & 2 are improving as well, based on this small sample size.

GW 4 fixture up next: CPL at home. Coming up against one of the worst defensive sides in the league, I think it’s the perfect fixture for Chelsea to finally show up this season, and I believe it might be smart to invest in some Blues assets ahead of the weekend's games.

Keep your Hazards and consider some Pedros! Costa another great differential too!

Moving Up - Game week 14

I’m back again this week after a short break. Once again, I bring you the three differential attacking punts to consider  for the forthcoming Gameweek.  They all have great potential to score well this week and will hopefully be able to catapult you up the overall rankings. All Fantasy Premier League ownership and price figures were accurate as of December 1.

Danny Ings

Burnley - FWD - 5.7m - 1.4% Ownership

Danny Ings has finally found his feet in the premier league and has been excellent of late. The England U21 international was the Championship’s player of the year last season(22 goals last season!), and has seemed to have fulfilled the expectations many had of him. The forward has gone relatively unnoticed by the FFS and FPL community in general but the Englishman has scored 4 goals in the last 5 games for Burnley and has been one of the most threatening forwards in the last few weeks. Ings has had several impressive stats over the last 4 game weeks - you can check these out at FantasyFootballScout.co.uk or Allthingsfpl.com for FREE!The Claret forward has finally found his stride in the premier league and looks a top option for this week's clash against Newcastle at home.

Kevin Mirallas

Everton - MID - 7.2m - 2.2% Ownership

A certain belgian has come back from injury with a bang for Everton - he’s scored 2 goals and picked up an assist in the last 3 games he’s played since his return. That’s it, you’ve guessed it - Kevin Mirallas! The midfielder was a popular midfield pick early in the season when he scored 2 consecutive goals, his injury cut him off our fantasy radars and now he’s back. The former Olympiacos forward scored a fantastic goal against Tottenham this week and has been in excellent form after recovering from a hamstring injury. This week Everton face a dire Hull side who have conceded 7 goals in the last 4 games, they’ve been very poor of late and their defensive form is perfect for the speedy Mirallas to exploit. Kev Mirallas will be buoyed by his manager’s confidence in him - Martinez believing Mirallas is the “unique” player that will boost them to a top 4 finish - and will try to continue his goalscoring run in the opportune fixture against Hull at Goodison Park.

Radamel Falcao

Manchester United - FWD - 10.5m - 2.2% Ownership

Radamel Falcao finishes the list and is my man united attacking pick for their game against Stoke. I have opted for the Colombian over the in-form Rooney and Robin Van Persie after taking a look at his stats. The former Atletico Madrid forward had some impressive numbers in game week 13 - those that compared very favourably to Van Persie's and Rooney's. You can check them out at FantasyFootballScout.co.uk or Allthingsfpl.com  for FREE! With Di Maria picking up an injury against Hull, he looks set to be reinstated to the starting line up against Stoke at Old Trafford. In game week 12, he very promising as an attacking punt up front, and an excellent alternative to the popular Rooney.

Moving Up - Game week 12

Back again with a duo for game week 12. Excuse the scrappy nature of the article - been really busy this week! 

This will be an weekly article that entails the top differentials for the week. Specific game week punts to move you up the ranks, if you’re willing to take the jump. Here's my set of punts for Game week 12

Jonathan Walters - STK - Mid - 5.2m

Jonathan Walters cemented himself as one of the FPL Infamous with his antics last season. In a single match, the Stoke forward/midfielder managed to score twice(!) - unfortunately, both times he put the ball into his own net. To top the worst performance off his life, Walters managed to blaze a penalty over the bar in the same match against Chelsea. A moment that will definitely be cherished by the many LOL@-ers on Fantasy Football Advice sites, and one to forget for all Walters owners last year, the Ireland international has been shunned as an FPL prospect since then. 

Although, it now seems that Walters is reestablishing himself as an FPL option the last few weeks. In the past 4 game weeks, Walters has scored twice and picked up an assist along the way, also earning 2 bonus points in total for those performances. He’s been in pretty good form and over the last few weeks he’s earned a spot on the right of Stoke’s attacking midfield. Walters has also some decent stats that you can check out at FantasyFootballScout or for FREE at AllThingsFPL

This week, Stoke face a leaky Burnley defence at the Brittania. Burnley have now conceded 19 goals this season, the 3rd highest in the league. Given Walters form and the excellent fixture, this game week is a terrific opportunity for him to repay his owners who make up 0.2% of the total FPL players. 

Samuel Eto’o - EVE - FWD - 5.6m 

Samuel Eto’o regained a spot in Everton’s starting 11 in game week 1, and repaid Martinez’s faith with a fantastic performance against Burnley - the Cameroon international nothced twice and picked up 3 bonus points. Since then, Eto’o has seemingly cemented a spot in their starting 11. Fielded up front instead of Lukaku, or behind/to the wide of Lukaku if Martinez chooses to play the Belgian too - it looks like Eto’o is fairly nailed on for the short run. Over the last 4 weeks, Eto’o has had the most shots on target(9) amongst the Everton bunch. With a price tag of 5.6m the Cameroonian looks very enticing to replace an injured Sakho or a sour-fixture-Berahino. 

In game week 12, Everton face West ham at home. It might not be that easy a fixture, but West ham haven’t exactly been the tightest, showing they can concede goals - especially away from home. The Hammers have conceded more goals away than at Upton Park this season, and their latest away game ended in a 2-2 draw with them conceding 2 goals to Stoke. This week they face a fantastic Everton attack which has scored the 4th highest number of goals this season(20) and if I had to call it I’d say this match is going to be a goal fest. That said, the home fixture looks like a great opportunity for Eto’o to rack up the points and I definitely recommend him as a punt for this week and the coming games. 

Moving Up - Gameweek 11

Hey lads, back after a short break. Got a little caught up in things and didn't have time to post, but I'm back with my regular(irregular really) Moving Up article for game week 11!

Note: Stats courtesy of AllthingsFPL. A brilliant site with fantastic members' articles, and a members area that has some nice stats for you to play around with. Best part is that it's all for FREE! Link's below and go check it out :)
Link: http://allthingsfpl.com/

This will be an weekly article that entails the top differentials for the week. Specific game week punts to move you up the ranks, if you’re willing to take the jump. Here's my set of punts for Game week 11: 


Robin van Persie

Robin van Persie didn’t start the season off with a bang, like most expected he would under Louis van Gaal. Instead, the Dutchman only managed to find the back of the net two times in his first five games and has only added another to his tally since then. A disappointing outcome for Fantasy managers who decided to invest in the 12.4 million man, prior to gameweek one. But, worry not! In the past couple of weeks we’ve seen glimpses of the RvP of old, and it seems the forward is starting to hit his stride this season. Scoring a crucial last minute equaliser against Chelsea in gameweek nine – with confidence a high and with a kind fixture schedule in the next few, owners could be set for a rise up the ranks, thanks to the player owned by a meagre 2% of managers. That is, of course, provided I can inspire you to make the pick with the rest of this article!

This week, Manchester United face a Crystal Palace side that are still wincing from their 2-1 loss at home to Sunderland. Palace have conceded the most goals from big chances allowed away from home this season (7) while van Persie has had the most big chances from the United ranks at Old Trafford (4), admittedly wasting them so far – three big chances missed – but with his pedigree this is surely a blip rather than a trend. With a fortune of world class players in the United side to create chances for him, the Dutch maestro will surely profit from the creativity of the likes of Angel di Maria and the returning Wayne Rooney. To back this up on paper, United have averaged 2.5 big chances created in their last two home games, which includes hosting Chelsea, up from a paltry season average of 1.6 along with RvP himself sitting third in the shots inside the box standings with 12 in the last four gameweeks – behind only Aguero and Pelle – despite facing Chelsea, Everton and Manchester City in this period. To add to his prospects this week, Crystal Palace’s crucial defensive midfielder, Mile Jedinak, is suspended for the game at Old Trafford. With the Australian midfielder being a key cog in their midfield, Palace relying greatly upon him for his defensive reliability, his absence could be a big problem for Palace this weekend and one that Manchester United will surely exploit with RvP at the spearhead of their attacks.

United’s next four involve three home games against Crystal Palace, Hull City, and Stoke as pointed out in this weeks edition of the Favourables on AllthingsFPL.com . Admittedly, one of the four being against Arsenal away, but Arsenal have been far from solid at the back this season and the fixture shouldn’t be too difficult to find goals in. The Red Devils have one of the best runs of fixtures in the next four and if the once flying Dutchman can regain the fantastic form he’s shown in past seasons, he could be a very interesting option for fantasy managers willing to pay the premium for him up front.

Enner Valencia

West Ham have been in blistering attacking form this season, scoring the 4th highest number of goals this term (19), and much of that has to be attributed to their fantastic work in the transfer market with the signings of Enner Valencia and Diafra Sakho. The two forwards have scored a combined total of 10 goals this season, an astounding 52% of their team’s goals. This is even more impressive considering the pair’s first start came in gameweek four! Although, Sakho’s six consecutive goals thrust him into the Fantasy limelight, whilst Enner Valencia’s slightly higher price tag ensured Fantasy managers always opted for his strike partner over him, with the forward remaining at an incredibly low ownership of 1.5%. Now here’s why you should give the Ecuador international some love instead.

Interestingly enough, despite the difference in goals this season, the pair have had fairly similar underlying statistics. Enner is the more creative player with seven key passes to five, and the forward has also been involved in more goal attempts(31 to Sakho’s 28). So surely it’s only a matter of time before Valencia’s goals catch up especially considering the Ecuadorian has managed 22 goal attempts in the last six gameweeks – fourth best in the Premier League. With Sakho due back from injury in gameweek 11, the forward might have lost some of the momentum he had in his fantastic run earlier in the season. It also usually takes a player some time to adjust coming back from injury, with that, more responsibility could be shifted onto Enner’s shoulders (Let’s hope that doesn’t injure them like Sakho) and the forward could be expected to become their main attacking outlet in terms of goals. He’s already shown he’s more than capable of doing so after scoring a fantastic diving header last gameweek, in Sakho’s absence. This should continue in the coming weeks and a favourable run of fixtures can only help his case. West Ham face AVL, NEW, wba, SWA, and sun in the next six, with all their defences being far from solid apart from West Brom, Valencia is one of the best options for a 3rd forward.

West Ham face a struggling Aston Villa side at home this weekend, and it would be shrewd to invest in a West Ham attack facing the side that has conceded the joint most goals(15) in the past six gameweeks. Conversely, West Ham have scored the joint highest number of goals in the same time frame (13), and this looks like a prime opportunity for Enner Valencia to turn heads his way. The Villains have also conceded the the most amount of big chances per game (2.5), and with West Ham’s own Fabregas – Stewart Downing. Hold on…What?! Did I just compare Stewart Downing to Cesc Fabregas?! Oh yes I did, Downing matches Fabregas for Key Passes in the last six gameweeks with a highly impressive 15 key passes, and is only three key passes behind Fabregas for the whole season, the former Liverpool man has been simply sublime this season. So with a creator like that behind him to create all those big chances, I’m confident the 6.9 million priced forward will put them in the back of the net against a leaky Villa side.

Moving Up

This will be an weekly article that entails the top differentials for the week. Specific game week punts to move you up the ranks, if you’re willing to take the jump. Here's my set of punts for Game week 8: 

Papiss Cisse - Newcastle - FWD

Cisse was ruled out for several months after undergoing surgery for an injury he sustained last season against Swansea. Upon recovery, the forward made his first appearance of the season in game week 4 and is currently Newcastle’s top goalscorer & FPL point scorer, this is very impressive considering he has only been involved in the last 3 matches, playing a combined total of 162 minutes out of a possible 270 minutes. Since his return, the forward has netted four times, picking up 6 bonus points along the way. The Senegal international has already doubled his goals total from last season, where he scored a meagre 2 goals in 24 appearances. It now seems Cisse has rediscovered the excellent form he showed in his first 2 seasons at Newcastle, with 4 goals in his last 3 games. This is the highest number of goals scored by anyone in the league over the last 3 weeks, an incredible feat considering his lack of pitch time in this period. He seems to be the perfect solution to Newcastle’s woes this season, with now a proper forward to lead the line and finish the scores of chances their creating this season - The Magpies have created the 5th highest number of chances this season, 3 ahead of Manchester United and just 4 behind Arsenal. 

This week, Cisse faces a leaky Leicester defence at St. James’ Park. Leicester have conceded 13 goals so far this season, and have performed a lot better at home, with dire performances when playing away from the King Power Stadium. The Foxes have conceded the most Goal attempts in the league away from home, and are 2nd for goal attempts conceded in the box. Their porous defence has also conceded the most chances on travels away from home, all pointing towards their lack of defensive resolve this season and particularly in away games. This looks bright for Cisse’s prospects, with a pervious defence and excellent form on his side. I believe the Newcastle forward is one of the top options for a punt this game week.

Saido Mane - Southampton - MID

Saido Mane came so close to finishing a glaring opportunity created by Bertrand last week, and was inches away from getting his first goal for the Saints. Since his arrival in gameweek 6, the speedy winger has looked quite the player, and has been very direct in his play. He has looked quite the goal threat and looks like a great pacey outlet for Tadic’s creativity. The Senegal International has already picked up an assist in his first two games and has a fantastic goalscoring record albeit being in the A.Bundesliga, he scored 23 goals and managed 18 assists in 50 games for Red Bull Salzburg last season. With him looking like he’s capable of jostling with the big boys in the premier league, Saido Mane could prove to be an excellent differential and punt if he can recreate anything close to his past goalscoring record. This week, Saido Mane faces Sunderland at home, and Southampton will be looking to continue their remarkable streak and if they are to do so, Mane will definitely be one of their main men in attack. 

Santi Cazorla - Arsenal - MID

Arsenal’s no. 10, Mesut Ozil sustained an injury last week against Chelsea that has ruled him out for a few months. So who will replace the former Real Madrid star? Step up Santi Cazorla. The Spaniard who flourished int he no. 10 role for Arsenal prior to Ozil’s arrival has now been presented the opportunity to do his thing once again. The former Malaga man managed a remarkable 12 goals and 13 assists in his debut season, but was knocked out of the first team set up when Ozil arrived. Owners will be hopeful that he can recreate the fantastic form he once had in his first season. Cazorla has been impressive coming off the bench for Arsenal this season, managing an assist and recording quite a number of impressive stats in terms of shots in the box and chances created. The Arsenal man now looks like a great option with a more assured spot in the starting line up.

With two new excellent attacking additions to the Arsenal squad in Danny Welbeck and Alexis Sanchez, Cazorla now has better outlets for his bursting creativity, and also players around him who can create chances for him to have a pop at goal. I believe a Santi Cazorla in the No. 10 role he loves so much, is a top FPL option for this game week for their home fixture against Hull, and also for the coming weeks for their favourable run of fixtures.

Budget Alternatives

With many looking to free up cash to afford premium options that are cropping up, I’ve decided to write an article on same-team budget alternatives. These alternatives are not necessarily better prospects than their premium counterparts, but they definitely provide excellent value for their difference in price

Raheem Sterling & Jordan Henderson

Team: Liverpool

Points Difference: 6 ( 40 - RS, and 34 - JH )

Price difference: 3.9m ( 8.9m - RS, and 6.0m - JH ) 

Ownership Difference: 40.5% (53% - RS, and 12.5% - JH )

Both Raheem Sterling and Jordan Henderson have performed very well so far this season, presenting them as viable FPL options. Although, Sterling has attracted far more owners than Henderson with Sterling sitting on a colossal ownership of 53%, while his national and club teammate has a significantly lower ownership of 12.5%. With a vast difference in their popularity, Henderson remains very much a differential and a possible under-the-radar alternative to Sterling. 

Henderson has scored 1 goal and managed 3 assists this season, along with 5 bonus points. His younger counterpart has scored on 3 different occasions so far and has picked up 2 assists along the way with 6 bonus points. As pointed out above, as it stands, the difference in their points totals is a meagre 6 points, this is not very significant in my eyes. On the other hand, a vast difference between the two options is their price. Jordan Henderson is much more dearly priced with a price tag 3.9m cheaper than that of Sterling. With such a massive difference in price and a current points output that isn’t far behind Sterling, could Henderson provide a solution to those on a tight budget? I believe he could, 

I expect Sterling to outscore him but I think that Henderson provides excellent value and has been a lot more attacking this season. ( Rodgers has also said that he aims to develop Henderson into a Ramsey-esqe player this season, with him getting forward a lot more ) Henderson has only created 3 chances less than Sterling, and with him showing that he can produce FPL points at a level that almost matches his more expensive team mate, Henderson could very well be an excellent way for one to free up cash in order to afford other big names that are popular at the moment like Aguero and Baines. I think he is one of the top budget alternatives in the game and is definitely being overlooked by many. 

David Silva & James Milner

Team: Manchester City 

Points Difference: 8 ( 28 - DS, 20 - JM )

Price Difference: 3.8m ( 9.1m - DS, 5.3m - JM )

Ownership Difference: 10.8% ( 11.6% - DS, 0.8% - JM )

Nasri’s long-term injury gave James Milner a spot in City’s starting 11, and the englishman has returned Pellegrini’s faith with fantastic performances in each of the last 4 games he’s started. Milner has racked up 19 points in his last 4 games, whilst Silva has only managed 15 in the same amount of time, a fairer comparison considering Milner didn’t start the first 3 games. Even without Milner starting the first 3, and only playing a part in 1, the Englishman is only 8 points behind the silk passer that is David Silva, a fairly insignificant difference even before considering the difference in minutes played.

To reinforce the impressive FPL performances from Milner, his underlying stats are excellent. In City’s last game against Aston Villa, Milner created 8 chances, the highest of the game week and 5 more than the popular David Silva. Since the Englishman’s reinstatement to the starting 11, he has created 2 more chances than Silva. This shows just how much value Milner provides, being able to surpass the Spaniard for creativity & assist potential whilst maintaining a respectable goal threat. He would also be an excellent differential at 0.8% ownership. At a price that’s 3.8m cheaper than Silva, I think Milner presents himself as a fantastic budget alternative to the favoured Silva. 

Tadic & Mane

Team: Southampton

Points Difference: 19 ( 25 - DT, 6 - SM )

Price Difference: 0.6m ( 7.5m - DT, 6.9m - SM )

Ownership Difference: 2.8% ( 2.9% - DT, 0.1% - SM )

Both Dusan Tadic and Saido Mane are new Saints’ recruits this season. Mane arriving a lot later due to work permit issues, and has only been involved in the last 2 Gameweeks. Over the past 2 Gameweeks, the Senegalese international has matched Tadic’s points total for 0.6m less, an amount that could be very valuable to those on a tight budget that just need that 0.1 or 0.2m more for a certain Baines or Aguero. Showing that Mane is more than capable of keeping up pace with his premium priced counterpart.

Saido Mane was very unlucky not to get his name on the sheet against Spurs, coming very close to finishing a glaring opportunity created by Bertrand. He seems to be quite the goal threat and has so far looked a better option for goals than his Serbian teammate. His record is also quite astonishing albeit being in the A.Bundesliga with 23 goals and 18 assists in 50 games for Red Bull Salzburg last season. He’s also managed to perform quite impressively in the Premier league as well with his stats looking very good over the past 2 game weeks. Despite having less minutes than Tadic, Mane has managed to come across more big chances, and has had the same number of touches in the penalty area. Interestingly enough, Mane has also created two more chances than his more expensive teammate since his arrival. 

This could be great for those on a tight budget, with Mane seemingly more than capable of keeping pace with or even surpassing Tadic as an FPL prospect, and looks like a fantastic punt and budget alternative at 0.1% ownership and 0.6m less.